Background:
CMHC requested analysis on different scenarios that can affect demand and supply of housing.
Long-term balance between supply and demand is critical to ensure all households can meet their core housing need.
- Affordable: Less than 30% of household income
- Suitable: the dwelling is a sufficient size for the household
- Adequate: the dwelling is in a state of good repair
If demand exceeds supply:
- Ownership prices and rents may grow faster than incomes.
- Affordable dwellings may be unsuitable or inadequate for households.
If supply exceeds demand:
- Investment in rental housing (purpose-build or secondary) may not be economical.
Demand and supply are geographically sensitive:
- The supply of dwellings must geographically match demand.
Supply Trends Scenarios
Three supply scenarios are examined based on historical rates:
- Status Quo: The 5-year average rate of completions continues
- Increased Construction: The rate of completions increases to 1 standard deviation above the Status Quo
- Decreased Construction: The rate of completions decreases to 1 standard deviation below the Status Quo
Demographic Trends Scenarios
Three demographic scenarios are considered:
- Recent trends: Migration, birth, and death follow the recent rates including declining death rates (people living longer) and birth rates (smaller family sizes)
- High growth: Increased immigration and stable birth rates
- Low growth: Decreased immigration
An Excel database of results (9 scenario combinations across 27 spatial resolutions) that can be filtered (by scenario combination, spatial resolution, year, dwelling size and type etc.) was generated.
Download results: CMHC Housing Stock and Demand
