Metrolinx requested CANCEA to investigate the significance and sensitivity of inter-region transit demand in the Greater Golden Horseshoe by 2041 with specific attention to (1) Municipalities reaching P2G population and job targets; (2) Accelerated industry structural changes in remote working habits (eg. made evident by COVID19).
General conclusions
- Transit will continue to play a key role in the GGH even if remote working persists after the pandemic
- Using P2G assumptions:
- Peel, Toronto, and Durham would have the greatest increase in people living and working in the same region
- Durham shows strong local job growth not seen historically including largest percentage increase in people living and working in the region
- Increased commutes from Toronto to surrounding regions, particularly Peel and York. York receiving significant in-commutes from Peel and Durham as well
- Growth in cross-commuting between Halton and Peel
- Even with more complete communities, significant increases in people traveling between regions will be required
- Some P2G assumptions require very significant deviations from what statistical simulation would suggest. For example:
- Significant shifts from trends in location of dwellings and locations of jobs
- Unconstrained mobility of households
- Almost 40% increase in the capacity of construction industry to build
