Canadian Centre for Economic Analysis

Recent Publications and Bulletins

Investing in Ontario’s Public Infrastructure: A Prosperity at Risk Perspective

Strategic investment in public infrastructure such as bridges, roads, transit systems, and hospitals is the foundation for a well-functioning society and crucial to Ontario’s future prosperity. CANCEA’s recent research report demonstrates that these investments have a tremendous long-term economic return.

Population and Job Growth Planning: Socioeconomic Issues with Places to Grow

Regional municipal planning is a crucial aspect of strategic economic development. Decisions made today create ripple-like impacts throughout the region—impacting each aspect from government finances, industry production, and individual income, to macro-level economic and population growth, environmental conservation, and the capacity of infrastructure to sustain all of that activity. Further complicating the problem of municipal planning is the diversity among regions, each of which must be uniquely appreciated in terms of its potential and its limitations in conjunction with the relationships it has with the regions around it.

The strategies behind growth naturally must anticipate future needs, allocate resources accordingly, manage risk associated with uncertainty, and correspond to a vision for how and where development should occur. In Ontario in 2005, such a vision for development was legislated through the Places to Grow Act. In order to combat the accelerated urbanization of green space and agricultural land, while simultaneously supporting expected increases in population and encouraging economic growth, the Places to Grow Act calls for a harmonized approach across different regions. To support the mandates of the Places to Grow Act for regions within the Greater Golden Horseshoe, long-term projections for “land use, infrastructure, and financial planning” were generated for the diverse constituent regions and municipalities of the Greater Golden Horseshoe.

Population and Job Growth Planning: Socioeconomic Issues with Places to Grow

Robust population and job projections go hand-in-hand with a holistic understanding of the health of economy, structural changes, infrastructure policy, and economic development, especially given their interconnections. Indeed, the need to connect population and job projections to the changing times is more imperative now than ever before. This is particularly the case in view of the recent decade of precarious employment, stagnant wage growth, and debt to which household finances are exposed in a climate of growing global competition and productivity pressures.

Missing Infrastructure's Crucial Returns - A Critique of FAO's Hydro One Report

Amidst the attention surrounding the Financial Accountability Officer’s report on Hydro One (October 2015), too few commentators have focused on the significant and important gap in the FAO’s selective analysis that results from omitting the taxation revenue impacts of investing part of the Hydro One share sale proceeds in much-needed Ontario infrastructure.

Costs, Benefits and Risks of Growth: Region of Peel: An exercise in regional socio-economic risk management

Between 2014 and 2041, the Region of Peel's population is expected to grow by 41%, the number of employed residents of Peel expected to grow by 35%, while jobs in Peel are at risk of growing only 23%. If Peel plans and services growth according to Places to Grow expectations, overcapitalization on employment lands may leave Peel with over $2 billion in stranded debt.

Socio-Economic Analysis: Value of Toronto Community Housing’s 10-Year Capital Investment Plan and Revitalization

Toronto Community Housing Corporation (TCHC), situated in the heart of one of the largest cities in North America, manages a stock of approximately 59,700 dwellings that provide homes to roughly 109,000 individuals. TCHC houses diverse families and individuals with a range of affordability levels, from those that pay market-level rents to others that qualify to pay rent that is geared according to family income. As of 2015, a $750M backlog of repairs threatens the ability of the second largest landlord in North America to continue meet its mandate of providing clean, affordable, and well-maintained homes.

Ontario Infrastructure Investment: Federal and Provincial Risks and Rewards

Analysis demonstrates that if sharing of the Ontario public infrastructure funding risks were to follow from the fiscal benefits that accrue to different levels of government, then all Ontario-based governments would be expected to cover approximately 61 per cent of the investments, with the federal government covering the balance of 39 per cent. Yet currently, all the Ontario-based governments collectively cover 88 per cent of the infrastructure investment risk.

Economic Evaluation of Region of Peel Water/Wastewater Investment

Sufficient investment into the Region of Peel (RoP) infrastructure ensures that the region’s roads, waste management, transit systems as well as water and power delivery are properly maintained and are adequate to serve the growing needs of the population of the region and the province. Beyond the basic societal needs, this investment also plays an important economic role in the way it supports the means of production and transportation of the region’s goods and services.

Diagnostic transitions from childhood to adolescence to early adulthood

Background:
Quantifying diagnostic transitions across development is needed to estimate the long-term burden of mental illness. This study estimated patterns of diagnostic transitions from childhood to adolescence and from adolescence to early adulthood.

Synthesis through simulation: insights on the epidemiology of mood and anxiety disorders in Canada

Objective:
Prevalence estimates for mood and anxiety disorders in Canada are available, but various methodological approaches have produced inconsistent results. Simulation studies involve careful examination of available data by an expert modelling team working together with subject matter experts. Simulation can integrate datasets and literature-based estimates from various sources into a coherent mathematical representation of the underlying total population epidemiology.

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