{"id":3105,"date":"2019-05-20T15:00:09","date_gmt":"2019-05-20T19:00:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.cancea.ca\/?p=3105"},"modified":"2022-11-20T15:11:17","modified_gmt":"2022-11-20T20:11:17","slug":"cmhc-research-potential-supply-demand-mismatches-in-the-canadian-housing-stock","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.cancea.ca\/index.php\/2019\/05\/20\/cmhc-research-potential-supply-demand-mismatches-in-the-canadian-housing-stock\/","title":{"rendered":"CMHC Research: Potential Supply\/Demand Mismatches in the Canadian Housing Stock"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Background:\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>CMHC requested analysis on different scenarios that can affect demand and supply of housing.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Long-term balance between supply and demand is critical to ensure all households can meet their core housing need.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Affordable: Less than 30% of household income<\/li>\n<li>Suitable: the dwelling is a sufficient size for the household<\/li>\n<li>Adequate: the dwelling is in a state of good repair<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>If demand exceeds supply:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Ownership prices and rents may grow faster than incomes.<\/li>\n<li>Affordable dwellings may be unsuitable or inadequate for households.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>If supply exceeds demand:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Investment in rental housing (purpose-build or secondary) may not be economical.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Demand and supply are geographically sensitive:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The supply of dwellings must geographically match demand.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Supply Trends Scenarios<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Three supply scenarios are examined based on historical rates:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><b>Status Quo<\/b>: The 5-year average rate of completions continues<\/li>\n<li><b>Increased Construction<\/b>: The rate of completions increases to 1 standard deviation above the Status Quo<\/li>\n<li><b>Decreased Construction<\/b>: The rate of completions decreases to 1 standard deviation below the Status Quo<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Demographic Trends Scenarios<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Three demographic scenarios are considered:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><b>Recent trends<\/b>: Migration, birth, and death follow the recent rates including declining death rates (people living longer) and birth rates (smaller family sizes)<\/li>\n<li><b>High growth<\/b>: Increased immigration and stable birth rates<\/li>\n<li><b>Low growth<\/b>: Decreased immigration<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>An Excel database of results (9 scenario combinations across 27 spatial resolutions) that can be filtered (by scenario combination, spatial resolution, year, dwelling size and type etc.) was generated.<\/p>\n<p>Download results:\u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cancea.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/CMHC-Housing-Stock-and-Demand.pdf\">CMHC Housing Stock and Demand<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Background:\u00a0 CMHC requested analysis on different scenarios that can affect demand and supply of housing.\u00a0 Long-term balance between supply and demand is critical to ensure all households can meet their core housing need. Affordable: Less than 30% of household income Suitable: the dwelling is a sufficient size for the household Adequate: the dwelling is in &hellip;<\/p>\n<p class=\"read-more\"> <a class=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cancea.ca\/index.php\/2019\/05\/20\/cmhc-research-potential-supply-demand-mismatches-in-the-canadian-housing-stock\/\"> <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">CMHC Research: Potential Supply\/Demand Mismatches in the Canadian Housing Stock<\/span> Read More &raquo;<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":3107,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":""},"categories":[143,109,145,103,129,101,106,136,128,124,150,102,151,142,153,157,147,172,138,152,149,116,127,108,140,117,148,104,141,160,131,111,144,97],"tags":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.8.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>CMHC Research: Potential Supply\/Demand Mismatches in the Canadian Housing Stock - Canadian Centre for Economic Analysis<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cancea.ca\/index.php\/2019\/05\/20\/cmhc-research-potential-supply-demand-mismatches-in-the-canadian-housing-stock\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"CMHC Research: Potential Supply\/Demand Mismatches in the Canadian Housing Stock - Canadian Centre for Economic Analysis\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Background:\u00a0 CMHC requested analysis on different scenarios that can affect demand and supply of housing.\u00a0 Long-term balance between supply and demand is critical to ensure all households can meet their core housing need. Affordable: Less than 30% of household income Suitable: the dwelling is a sufficient size for the household Adequate: the dwelling is in &hellip; CMHC Research: Potential Supply\/Demand Mismatches in the Canadian Housing Stock Read More &raquo;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.cancea.ca\/index.php\/2019\/05\/20\/cmhc-research-potential-supply-demand-mismatches-in-the-canadian-housing-stock\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Canadian Centre for Economic Analysis\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2019-05-20T19:00:09+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-11-20T20:11:17+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.cancea.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/CMHS-Scenarios-for-housing.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"562\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"728\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Paul Smetanin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Paul Smetanin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.cancea.ca\/index.php\/2019\/05\/20\/cmhc-research-potential-supply-demand-mismatches-in-the-canadian-housing-stock\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.cancea.ca\/index.php\/2019\/05\/20\/cmhc-research-potential-supply-demand-mismatches-in-the-canadian-housing-stock\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Paul Smetanin\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.cancea.ca\/#\/schema\/person\/c666b713a7851db524a0dffd96669e00\"},\"headline\":\"CMHC Research: Potential Supply\/Demand Mismatches in the Canadian Housing Stock\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-05-20T19:00:09+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2022-11-20T20:11:17+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.cancea.ca\/index.php\/2019\/05\/20\/cmhc-research-potential-supply-demand-mismatches-in-the-canadian-housing-stock\/\"},\"wordCount\":248,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.cancea.ca\/#organization\"},\"articleSection\":[\"Affordability\",\"Canada\",\"Construction\",\"Datasets\",\"Demographic\",\"Demographics\",\"Economics\",\"Forecasting, Scenarios And Sensitivities\",\"Forecasts\",\"Forecasts\",\"Growth Management\",\"Households\",\"Housing\",\"Housing\",\"Housing Stock And Affordability Analysis\",\"Infrastructure\",\"Municipal\",\"Municipal\",\"Municipal\",\"Municipal Government Support\",\"Municipal Housing\",\"Ontario\",\"Policy Analysis\",\"Region\",\"Regional\",\"Regional\",\"Regional\",\"Regional\",\"Regional Growth Risk Management\",\"Risks And Rewards\",\"Scenario Analysis\",\"Service\",\"Stock\",\"Topic\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-CA\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.cancea.ca\/index.php\/2019\/05\/20\/cmhc-research-potential-supply-demand-mismatches-in-the-canadian-housing-stock\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.cancea.ca\/index.php\/2019\/05\/20\/cmhc-research-potential-supply-demand-mismatches-in-the-canadian-housing-stock\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.cancea.ca\/index.php\/2019\/05\/20\/cmhc-research-potential-supply-demand-mismatches-in-the-canadian-housing-stock\/\",\"name\":\"CMHC Research: Potential Supply\/Demand Mismatches in the Canadian Housing Stock - 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