Canadian Centre for Economic Analysis

Detailed socio-economic datasets available for Canada, down to every municipality

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Starting 8th June 2020 CANCEA will provide, free of charge, its analysis of the COVID-19 crisis to every municipality in Canada.

Non-municipal entities can purchase any municipal dataset for a fee to assist in covering the costs of the service to municipalities.

Municipal COVID-19 Risk Analysis

COVID-19 has created deep economic uncertainty for Canadians. As the various levels of government in Canada discuss reopening the economy, municipalities need to understand the risks associated with different courses of action to best support their local populations.

Navigating this health and economic crisis will require singular efforts of cooperation and knowledge-sharing between the public, private and non-profit sectors. This is why we at the Canadian Centre for Economic Analysis have decided to conduct an industry, economic and population-health risk analysis for each Canadian municipality and donate our findings to every municipality in Canada. We hope that this data will help decision-makers make evidence-based decisions to minimize risks and improve population health and economic outcomes as you plan for the economic re-opening of your regions.

CANCEA’s agent-based model contains statistical representations of individual people, households, businesses and governments and simulates their interactions under different scenarios to understand the impacts under various conditions. Our simulations are produced using various statistics, surveys and current academic papers about people and businesses across North America.

Results in the database include:

  • Potential COVID-19 impacts on residents, their households and their jobs
  • Resident health risks and risk factors for severe illness
  • Mental health risks
  • Risks to Industries and business operations
  • Comparison of risks to surrounding regions and to the province

Given the uncertain nature of the crisis and the resultant public health and consumer behavioural responses, different scenarios are simulated for the next 24 months.

Those scenarios include:

  • 1 wave of COVID-19 – the economy slowly opens in late June 2020 (available early June):
    • Without CERB and CEWS during the public health response
    • With CERB and CEWS during the public health response
  • 2 waves of COVID-19 – the economy slowly opens in late June 2020, only essential businesses are open in October 2020 through to April 2021 (available mid-June):
    • Without CERB and CEWS during the public health response
    • With CERB and CEWS during the public health response

The analysis will include the following:

1. Potential COVID-19 Impacts on Residents

1.1. Residents

Resident characteristics, including:

  • Households (structure, tenure, income deciles, age of maintainer), housing affordability level, core housing need
  • If employed, occupations and industries
  • Count of people and percentage of age cohort and statistics relative to the surrounding region

1.2. Resident Health Risks

In order of risk, residents:

  • At risk of exposure to COVID-19 through
    • Their employment activity (at work)
    • Their exposure to children in the household
    • Level of social activity
    • Where they live
    • Their travel out of the region
    • Their travel into the region (by virtue of inability to work from home and workplace exposure)
  • At elevated health risk given age, income, inability to work from home, and comorbidities

1.3. Risk factors for severe illness

COVID-19 is a new disease and there is limited information regarding risk factors for severe illness. Based on currently available information and clinical expertise, older adults and people of any age who have serious underlying medical conditions might be at higher risk for severe illness from COVID-19. Statistics will be updated as more information becomes available.

The following is derived from population health studies performed by RiskAnalytica and CANCEA.

Risk factors for severe illness (prevalence in the community):

  • Age and sex
  • Respiratory
    • Asthma
    • COPD
    • Current Smokers
    • Former smoker
  • Diabetes
  • Heart Disease
  • Obesity
  • High blood pressure
  • Substance abuse
  • Cancer
    • Active
    • Remission/Former
  • Rheumatoid arthritis
  • Diabetes
    • T2 general
    • Diabetes T2 high-risk population
    • Diabetes T1

1.4. Mental health

With COVID-19 exposing residents daily to isolation, fear and death, there is another health crisis unfolding that is associated with psychological trauma. In their lifetime, 70% of Canadians will have experienced a mental health episode of some kind.

What follows is the profile of mental health in the community:

  • Substance abuse
  • Anxiety – % with current episode; previous episodes/not current, with
    • T2 diabetes
    • Heart disease
    • No comorbidity
    • Substance abuse, with
      • Mood disorders
      • T2 diabetes
      • Heart disease
      • No comorbidity
  • Mood/depression % with current episode; previous episodes/not current, with
    • T2 diabetes
    • Heart disease
    • No comorbidity
    • Substance abuse, with
      • Mood disorders
      • T2 diabetes
      • Heart disease
      • No comorbidity

1.5. Financial & Employment Risks

Residents at risk of:

  • Job losses: Full time, part-time; temporary, permanent
    • Their household characteristics (structure, tenure, income deciles, age of maintainer),
    • Housing affordability level, core housing need
    • Based on 500+ occupations, 200+ industries
  • Business insolvency: based upon economic results
  • Consumer insolvency: based upon economic results
  • Mortgage debt arrears: based upon economic results

Essential and non-essential resident employees

  • Household characteristics (structure, tenure, income deciles, age of maintainer), housing affordability level, core housing need
  • Based on 500+ occupations, 200+ industries

Residents that can do more than 50% of their work from home

  • Household characteristics (structure, tenure, income deciles, age of maintainer), housing affordability level, core housing need
  • Based on 500+ occupations, 200+ industries

Residents receiving CERB:

  • Based on essential/non-essential and ability to work remotely
  • Based on 500+ occupations, 200+ industries

2. Potential COVID-19 Impacts on Business Activity

2.1. Employees

Employees are broken down by their characteristics, including:

  • Household structure, tenure, income decile, age of maintainer, housing affordability level, core housing need
  • Occupations and industries
  • Daily Occupational COVID-19 Risk score
    • Physical proximity to people at work, COVID-19 exposure, people contact at home and travel
    • By occupation x income x risk score x NAICS x travel mode
  • Home Work Ability Index (HWA Index) which measures the ability of different occupations by NAICS to work from home

2.2. Employee Health Risks

In order of risk, resident employees:

  • At risk of exposure to COVID-19 through
    • Their employment activity (at work)
    • Their exposure to children
    • Their exposure to young adults (20 to 40-year-old singles)
    • Where they live
    • Travel out of the region
    • Travel into the region (by virtue of inability to work from home and workplace exposure)
  • At elevated health risk given age, income, inability to work from home, and comorbidities

2.3. Risks to Industries

Industries within a region’s economic base that are most at risk of:

  • Job losses
    • Part-time, full-time
    • Temporary, permanent
  • Business closures: : based upon economic results
    • Temporary, permanent
  • Business insolvency: based upon economic results
  • Export/import market risks and constraints

2.4. Business Operations

  • Jobs, by occupation and NAICS, essential and non-essential
  • Occupations and industries that can do more than 50% of their work from home

3. Comparators,

Key metrics compared to nearest CMA/CA, and province