Canadian Centre for Economic Analysis

Costs, Benefits and Risks of Growth: Region of Peel: An exercise in regional socio-economic risk management

Key Peel Results

Between 2014 and 2041:

  • Regional population expected to grow by 41%
  • Number of employed residents of Peel expected to grow by 35%
  • Jobs in Peel at risk of growing only 23%
  • Provincial and federal tax revenues increase by 62% and 68% respectively
  • If Peel plans and services growth according to Places to Grow expectations, overcapitalization on employment lands may leave Peel with over $2 billion in stranded debt

The Region of Peel, having experienced robust growth in previous decades, is currently home to over 1.4 million residents and 88,000 businesses. The Region of Peel, comprising Mississauga, Brampton, and Caledon, is expected to continue to experience rapid growth into the decades to come and must carefully plan its investments today in order to chart the trajectory of its development into an increasingly vibrant and prosperous economy. Planning to accommodate significant growth within the Region, however, is a complex task that must be approached with appreciation not only for its objectives for the future; Peel’s current socio-demographic, economic, and geographic characteristics—along with the relationship between Peel and its surrounding areas—form the foundation on which Peel will build, develop, and grow.

In order for Peel to plan for its population to grow according to the projections legislated through the Places to Grow Act, which expects that Peel will have a population of over 1.97 million people by 2041, it must incrementally invest in infrastructure as it continues to support its current population.

In order to determine and analyze the benefits, costs, and risks associated with growth, the Region of Peel has sought the use of the Canadian Centre for Economic Analysis’ Prosperity at Risk simulation platform. Because the Region of Peel must simultaneously manage and balance its development across multiple, interconnected avenues, including the continued provision of diverse resident services alongside the support of its economic growth, a holistic approach to planning must be undertaken. For this reason, agent-based modeling was employed. Agent-based modeling animates individual agents—comprising businesses, governments, people, and others—using empirically informed behavioural heuristics, historical data, and complete financial accounting against geographic locations in one country-wide consistent model.

Region of Peel Cost and Benefits of Growth Executive Summary